Fact Checking, Peer Review, and George Will

Recently, George Will published a column entitled "Dark Green Doomsayers" in which he claims, among other things, that "global sea ice levels now equal those of 1979." Numerous responses challenged the facts presented in Will's article, with Will counter-responding that his facts were correct in that he was reporting global sea ice, and not Arctic sea ice. If only Arctic sea ice is measured, the amount has declined since 1979.

While Mr. Will was technically correct, his nevertheless misleading statement points out the fundamental problem with presenting complex experimental data, and drawing conclusions from it, to a large audience. Science is by its nature a messy thing, with many published results that are incorrect, unimportant, or intentionally misleading. That's why a system of peer-review has evolved that attempts to sift the best kernels of scientific ideas from the chaff.

Which leads us back to Will's articles and the problem of non-experts weighing into the debate on climate change. By presenting a few facts that are cherry-picked to draw a forgone conclusion, anyone can make a case to uninformed readers that their cause is just (or that their opponents cause is foolish). Which is why if Mr. Will's results were submitted for peer review by qualified experts, they would be almost certainly be rejected. If Mr. Will wants to influence the debate about climate change, I suggest he submit his thoughts to a refereed journal. Maybe he should stick to writing about baseball and politics, topics where there is no "right" answer.

No Country for Old Bloggers

[Spoiler alert]

I just watched "No Country for Old Men" and I walked away wondering what to think of it all. I know that art that makes you think is good art, but I'm not sure that this is good art. The craft of the movie was incredible - the acting, writing, cinematography. The images, characters, and settings left a deep impression. It reminded me of the movie Brazil, by Terry Gilliam, another movie full of artful and disturbing images.

The ending surprised me. About half way through, I thought "This is just like The Terminator, except with a guy instead of a machine". Of course, the really good stories don't end the way you expect them to. But there is the question of the message. Where does it leave us, after it's all over? Am I like the sheriff? Is there no one left to mourn when it's all over? From the last scene, I get the impression that there is a message of redemption, but in this case, it seems to come only with death.

Between Javier Bardem winning the Oscar for this and Heath Ledger winning for The Dark Knight, it seems like our society appreciates the purity of the psychopathic vision that these actors so effectively portray. Not my cup of tea, and I wonder what the psychological impact of such deeply imagined and realized visions might be. I recently saw The Terminator again, and I realized that Arnie's destructive rampage probably wasn't unlike what the tragedy at Columbine High School must have been like.

Maybe such images don't affect us all.
Maybe those kids never watched The Terminator or countless movies like it.
Maybe this is truly "No Country for Old Bloggers"...

What Do the Lost Billions Mean?

Every day now we hear bad financial news. We hear about the need to spend a billion here and there, like we understand what a billion dollars really means or how the government spending it will eventually affect all of us. To me, the lost billions have become an abstraction, a torrent of muddy water rushing away from us, cleansing us of past sins.

Maybe it's for the best. After all, we still have our family, friends, health, and faith. The stock market is the merest illusion, encouraging us to spend thoughtlessly in good times, shocking us into mental depression in hard times. But we should see through this illusion -- the market is, after all, obeying simple laws of mathematics.

In the end, I know that the billions will be spent, and billions will be wasted, and eventually, when the future seems less threatening (for whatever reason), we will feel normal again. But maybe, the real road to feeling normal does not require spending billions, but instead just needs us to spend a minute, think about the people around us, lend each other a helping hand, and realize that in the end, that's what really matters. Just maybe...

Welcome to My Blog

This is my first post. I'm thinking about what I'll be blogging about. Let me know if you have any ideas.